Most things in life aren’t black and white, especially difficult decisions. Yet, humans have a tendency to think in the binary (yes/no, right/wrong, good/bad) and this can negatively impact decision making quality.
High performance teams working in areas of uncertainty benefit from utilizing probabilistic decision making. This is how we work during acute trauma resuscitations or making difficult decisions when faced with diagnostic dilemmas.
4 key benefits to probabilities:
- Reduces cognitive bias – we can’t eliminate these biases but we can systematically structure our decisions to mitigate them. Assigning probabilities to possible outcomes shifts our decisions from subjective (e.g. I feel like this is a good idea) to objective (e.g. we have a 65% chance of success)
- Improves risk management – using probabilities inherently builds in the idea that the desired outcome may not occur. E.g. I think there’s an 80% chance this patient has a non serious cause of chest pain. Built into the statement is that there’s a 20% chance of a high risk diagnosis, so we better address that risk. It forces us away from thinking this is “unlikely” serious which is true, but naturally humans assume unlikely = never (and conversely likely=always). Which is inherently problematic.
- Stronger strategic insights – it helps people think about the alternatives. This is a huge benefit. It fosters creativity in alternative options for a decisions and reduces our chances of considering only one option. We can ask ourselves “what if” and look at 2nd order decisions (e.g. what will the consequences be of this decision)
- Strengthens learning – By using probabilities, we can document these when assigned to our decisions. E.g. I think there’s an 90% chance this acquisition will lead to increased profits. Once the decision is made, then it allows for a more objective debriefing session. Why did we think 90% chance of higher profits when in reality we’re seeing the opposite? What information did we miss? What insights did we not consider?
Supercharge your team
If you haven’t started using probabilities within your high performing team, you’re missing out. We use these for life-death decisions all the time in the emergency department – but they apply broadly to all areas of uncertainty faced by elite teams. Probabilities are a strategic ally that can unlock key insights for your team – improving long-term success.
That’s why at Advanced Performance we teach the elite teams to use this approach for all high stakes decisions. Connect with us if you’re interested in learning more.
